Forecasting


Introduction

In researching forecasting within a business some of the information has proven to be very helpful in determining what the future holds for the business or company. Some of the concepts this paper will cover has to deal with indexes and the different types of indexes that are involved with any type of business. With any business forecasting the future trends are important because these charts show the trends over a period of years based on the averages. All company’s have forecasting to meet the goals and objectives within the business. Rating systems can also be viewed as an index but require certain factor’s in particular rating systems. There is a variety of index’s throughout the business world some of them consist of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Consumer Price Index, and the Consumer Confidence Index.
Forecasting is a process in which, business’s make statements about the events where the actual outcome has typically not been observed. Business’s tend to make forecasting apart of the business because it sets out goals and objectives for them to achieve. Without forecasting the business would not have any type of goals or objectives to reach therefore, the business would not know what to predict for the upcoming years or months. Forecasting is done in a variety of ways and tells different types of information based on the business. The chosen forecasting for this project was the Winter and Summer Highs for a period of four years. Based on the information that was given the forecasting of these two items fluctuated throughout the years. Estimation of the future goals of the business would allow them to achieve success. For example, the current company that I work for right now uses forecasting to determine the amount of sales that they will do during each of the two shifts. Even though forecasting is just an estimation of the sales that they will possibly do it is a goal that they work towards. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a well-publicized index that reflects the value of stock prices (Sevilla, 2007).
In reading the text about rating index’s this type of index can be considered as a type of indexing scheme. These types of rating index’s are set up for company’s to compare movies, colleges, cities, or other institutions. When consumer’s buy movies the company will rate how popular the movies are depending on the demand of the product. Movies are rated on the content of those movies and placed in the following categories: PG, PG-13, R, NC-17, or G. Rating index’s can also be used to organize places, or things based on the amount of traffic a certain place has had over the past year or compared to earlier years. This could be used to base the future’s popularity of certain places around the world. In order for a business to use the rating system indexes appropriately, the business needs to consider the information that is included in the rating as well as the reliability of the information. We encounter rating systems when various organizations rate, for example, the best cities for walking or the best “family-friendly” companies (Sevilla, 2007)..
The charts show how the time series data of indices fluctuates by decreasing and increasing steadily of the months, and years. Throughout these years the information that has been provided shows that the fluctuation over these years will more than likely continue. During the fifth and ninth months is when the summer highs were at their peak. Then in the tenth month it dropped considerably with a slight peak in month eleven and then back down at the twelve month. During the winter highs the fluctuation begins at the beginning of the year and has the highest peak during the eleventh and twelfth month. The winter highs started off with a high peak and tapered off throughout the upcoming months. Looking at the information it looks like the last two months of the year were the best time for the winter highs.
In conclusion, by looking at the market prices, trends, and forecasting business’s can set out goals, and objectives. Predictions and outcomes are different and sometimes those goals and objectives are not met. But with any business these figures are not set in stone and can be changed to meet the future trends, and market prices. Forecasting is a way to forecast or predict what the company or business will do during the year, or months. There is no guarantee that that the number’s that have been projected will be matched. Forecasting with indexes is a excellent way to make sure that demands are being met throughout the business.

References:

Sevilla, A., & Somers, K. (2007). Quantitative reasoning: Tools for today’s informed citizen (1st ed.). Emeryville, CA: Key College Publishing.

Pointer’s


I am new to blogging and would like some pointer’s on what people would like to read about. Even though I have had some comments on the content of this blog. I would like some advice on how to make it better, and allow more traffic to come to my blog. I know that it takes time to make a good blog. Research is the key to making anything a success. I want to provide information on everything that I can. So tell me what you would like to read about.

Management Experience


Objective:
To obtain a rewarding opportunity as well as challenging employment so that I am able to excel at all that I do.
Summary of Qualifications:
• Inventory control, management, training, copying, bookkeeping, and appointment setting. Excellent communication skills, a professional telephone voice, organizational skills, Strong knowledge of Microsoft word with a typing speed of 40 WPM.
• Ability to work as a team or independently and a team leader. Efficient at Microsoft word, power points, professional, filing papers, alphabetizing, scheduling, and customer service.
Work Experience
3/2011 – Present Associate Ruby Tuesday’s
Reliable, team player, and customer service
2/2010-2/2011 Relief Manager Waffle House
Reliable, team player, customer service, and inventory control.
10/2008 – 2/2010 Relief Manager Waffle House
Inventory control, staffing, payroll, customer service, and management.
6/2007 – 6/2008 Department of Human Services Secretary
Appointment setting, faxing, copying, bookkeeping, and transferring databases.
3/2006-6/2007 Relief Manager Waffle House
Inventory control, staffing, payroll, customer service, and management.

Education
8/2011 University of Phoenix On line
Master’s Degree Business Administration/Accounting
5/2009 University of Phoenix On line
Bachelor’s Degree Business Management
References: Available on Request

Marketing Plan


By having an effective marketing plan that is influenced by the customer’s and the wants or needs of those customer’s. The importance of customer feedback is something that is very important to any and all business’s. To get the right feedback about the products or services that are offered within that business. Designing products are made with the consumer in mind because the product is what the customer is asking for. Marketing the product or service will influence the consumer to buy the product and that is what the business is shooting for. The consumer’s have to have faith in the products that they buy or they will not purchase them. If the product or service does not meet the consumer’s needs they will find it somewhere else. Positioning the product is another important factor that must be taken into consideration in order to maximize the profit of those products or services. Once the target market and motives are identified the effective marketing plan can influence the consumer’s that purchase the products or services. Earning the customer’s trust is the key issue when building a solid foundation of products or services that are offered to the consumer. Without an effective marketing plan the product or service could not be profitable to the company.

Social Responsibility


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All business’s have a social responsibility to their employee, executives, Board of Director’s, and stockholder’s. The business is also held accounted for the customer’s, suppliers, creditors, governments, unions, competitors, and the public as well. Everything that is done within the world today has channels to run through. An excellent example for this would be the company that I am working for now. Ruby Tuesday’s is known to be a bar and grill where customer’s can come to have a good time and enjoy their dinner or watch the games that happen to be playing that day. Ruby Tuesday’s is coming up to the gaming season but in the process they have made some changes to what type of image they want to set. Furthermore, if the company did not set standards they would not make a profit and would not keep customers if they do not live up to the promise that they make to the customers. Today I was serving an older couple and before they left, the woman said that she was very pleased with her experience with us today. She said that it was nice to go out and have a nice dining experience instead of the fast food. The whole point of being in business is to make an impact on the customer’s that come into your establishment. Finding out what your customers like and dislike is a great tool to understanding what they expect when shopping in your business. The mission statement of a company shows the customers that they are ready and willing to make them happy no matter what. “Social responsibility is a critical consideration for a company’s strategic decision makers since the mission statement must express how the company intends to contribute to the societies that sustain it” (Pearce & Robinson, 2004).

Change Management in the Business World


I think that change management is just exactly what it means. This is the person or people who supervise anything that happens within the business. Managers are put in place within the organization to make sure that things are running properly and things are going smoothly. Managers are responsible for everything that happens or does not happen within that business. Making sure that the employees are doing the job that they are supposed to be doing without question. If the management team is not doing their job then things are probably not being done the way that they should. In any business change management is important especially if the business is just starting up because if the management team is not supervising the changes that are being made to make sure that they are implemented in the right way then this will cause other problems for the business. Making sure that shifts are running smoothly and correctly is the main key to having a successful day. For example, when I was a relief manager for a company I managed on my boss’s day’s off so therefore, I was in charge of making sure that the bank deposits were done correctly, I had to make sure that all three shifts were covered, and I also had to make sure that the shift had what they needed to make it through the night. I have made mistakes and learned from them but if I had paid close attention to what I was doing in the first place I would not have made mistakes. But you have to learn from your mistakes and make sure that you do not make the same one over again.

Writing a Book


I love to write

Writing & Skirt

I have thought about writing a book especially when I can write around 100,000 words in one year in a journal about all the things that happen in a years time and on a daily basis. I have journal’s from different places that I have worked in and most of the comments are funnier now than they were when I wrote them. It is interesting the things that you find out about people when you just listen to them talking about their lives. I have managed to almost write 20,000 this year from the day to day grind. Like Saturday the children and I have been building a Terrarium and we found two cocoons and one of them hatched Saturday morning. These are the moments that I cherish in my journal writings.

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