Forecasting


Introduction

In researching forecasting within a business some of the information has proven to be very helpful in determining what the future holds for the business or company. Some of the concepts this paper will cover has to deal with indexes and the different types of indexes that are involved with any type of business. With any business forecasting the future trends are important because these charts show the trends over a period of years based on the averages. All company’s have forecasting to meet the goals and objectives within the business. Rating systems can also be viewed as an index but require certain factor’s in particular rating systems. There is a variety of index’s throughout the business world some of them consist of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Consumer Price Index, and the Consumer Confidence Index.
Forecasting is a process in which, business’s make statements about the events where the actual outcome has typically not been observed. Business’s tend to make forecasting apart of the business because it sets out goals and objectives for them to achieve. Without forecasting the business would not have any type of goals or objectives to reach therefore, the business would not know what to predict for the upcoming years or months. Forecasting is done in a variety of ways and tells different types of information based on the business. The chosen forecasting for this project was the Winter and Summer Highs for a period of four years. Based on the information that was given the forecasting of these two items fluctuated throughout the years. Estimation of the future goals of the business would allow them to achieve success. For example, the current company that I work for right now uses forecasting to determine the amount of sales that they will do during each of the two shifts. Even though forecasting is just an estimation of the sales that they will possibly do it is a goal that they work towards. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a well-publicized index that reflects the value of stock prices (Sevilla, 2007).
In reading the text about rating index’s this type of index can be considered as a type of indexing scheme. These types of rating index’s are set up for company’s to compare movies, colleges, cities, or other institutions. When consumer’s buy movies the company will rate how popular the movies are depending on the demand of the product. Movies are rated on the content of those movies and placed in the following categories: PG, PG-13, R, NC-17, or G. Rating index’s can also be used to organize places, or things based on the amount of traffic a certain place has had over the past year or compared to earlier years. This could be used to base the future’s popularity of certain places around the world. In order for a business to use the rating system indexes appropriately, the business needs to consider the information that is included in the rating as well as the reliability of the information. We encounter rating systems when various organizations rate, for example, the best cities for walking or the best “family-friendly” companies (Sevilla, 2007)..
The charts show how the time series data of indices fluctuates by decreasing and increasing steadily of the months, and years. Throughout these years the information that has been provided shows that the fluctuation over these years will more than likely continue. During the fifth and ninth months is when the summer highs were at their peak. Then in the tenth month it dropped considerably with a slight peak in month eleven and then back down at the twelve month. During the winter highs the fluctuation begins at the beginning of the year and has the highest peak during the eleventh and twelfth month. The winter highs started off with a high peak and tapered off throughout the upcoming months. Looking at the information it looks like the last two months of the year were the best time for the winter highs.
In conclusion, by looking at the market prices, trends, and forecasting business’s can set out goals, and objectives. Predictions and outcomes are different and sometimes those goals and objectives are not met. But with any business these figures are not set in stone and can be changed to meet the future trends, and market prices. Forecasting is a way to forecast or predict what the company or business will do during the year, or months. There is no guarantee that that the number’s that have been projected will be matched. Forecasting with indexes is a excellent way to make sure that demands are being met throughout the business.

References:

Sevilla, A., & Somers, K. (2007). Quantitative reasoning: Tools for today’s informed citizen (1st ed.). Emeryville, CA: Key College Publishing.

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Dow Jones


Why is the Dow Jones Average an index? How does the Dow Jones relate to the Nikkei index? What is the relationship between an index and the inflation rate?

In reading about the Dow Jones which is an index that averages out the performance of 30 stocks within the various markets. Now each one of these 30 stocks lies in one of the country’s major industries and illustrates the changes within the stock prices and how it relates and effects the rest of the economy or stock market. Dow Jones can be used as a benchmark so that they can compare other stocks and evaluate whether or not they are doing better within the market. This also allows them to see the market trends and identify them easier. In discussing the Nikkei index which is Japan’s version of the Dow Jones Average which accounts for 225 stocks in a variety of industries unlike the 30 that the Dow Jones averages. There are indexes for just about anything in the world today and it is important to note that all indexes are not related to inflation. When we think about indexes we find that the Consumer Price index is one that identifies trends and shows if the market prices effect the dollar. Furthermore, the Fog Index which is used to make and show averages about literary works within those markets.

Advertising commercials


One of the television advertisments that I have watched was about Pamper’s diaper’s and how the shape of the diaper is made to fit any child. With room for movements and other various movements. This ad was telling the consumer that Pamper’s is the right choice from all of the other choices for diaper’s. They put little designs on the diaper’s to make them more appealing for the consumer. Back in the old days they would use cloth diaper’s for the babies and they would have to wash them out. Disposable diaper’s are a dream come true for most parents because they are quick and simple and with little or no mess. The graphics that these commercials use for the ads is wonderful because the ads portray their products on babies and how well the diaper moves as the baby is crawling around. I also think that the ad is socially responsible because it is geared toward parents and babies. To make life a little easier for busy parents and for the child as well. In this day and time I could not see using cloth diaper’s but I would if I had to. Thank goodness that part of it is over. I do not think that ads like this need any improvements.

Foreign Markets


3) What might be the special problems of small businesses entering foreign markets? Discuss at least two problems that might be encountered. How might these problems be approached to create a successful marketing campaign? When might it be best to market a product or service only locally?
There are two significant problems that either a large or small business can run into when entering the foreign market place. Failing to adapt a product and to make it market appropriate can cause marketing issues for the business. Going through the wrong distribution channels will cause a desired product to never reach the destination that is intended. Many restaurants have different types of products on their menu’s depending on what type of customer’s they have coming into their establishment. Not every McDonald’s is going to have the same menu items that we have here in my home town. Every culture and every business has their own taste’s and marketing techniques. It is up to the business to know how to market to the right types of consumer’s in order to make the product a success. All business’s have different items for different types of customer’s. Waffle House serves eggs and different types of items to their customer’s while Cracker Barrel offer’s more with the dinner’s they serve. The whole idea behind being in business is attracting different types of people to your establishment and by offering items or products that will entice the consumer to come in. It will also give the word of mouth marketing that every company seeks to find from the customer’s. Finding that niche within the market will also help in getting the product or service to be a success.

The Stresses of the Real World


While listening to the birds chirping in the background, thinking about the upcoming stresses in her life, and wondering how things will play out in the end. She wonders how she is supposed to tell her children to go to college when it has not helped her out in the least. Countless resume’s she has sent out to numerous counties, and then no one calls and she does not hear any replies to the contrary about her skills, and knowledge. Putting your education on your resume will hurt the results because many company’s think that you will not work for the rate that they are paying. It is almost as if no one wants anyone to succeed in life. People should just stand around taking the beatings of loans; bills, working every day for the rest of your life, and watching the prices of food and other items getting higher and higher. While gas prices are starting to go down everything else is on the rise.
Well in this day and time, it is hard to keep the faith that things will work out in the end. She has spent most of her life doing things for other people and making money for them by doing the job the best that she can and with nothing in return. The future does not look to promising here in this small town. If you do not know certain people, you do not get all the goodies. In order, for you to make it in a world you have to know everyone that matters. It is a win or lose situation and if you do not know the right people and have the right connections, you will not go anywhere. In this day and time, knowing the right people can get you the job that you have dreamed of and she wonders how things will look in the future.
Throughout your life you are told that you need to have an education to get that dream job what they do not tell you is that it may take quite a long time before you finally get that dream job. Some students upon graduating have accomplished obtaining their dream job, and some students are not lucky enough and have to keep searching for that job. Furthermore, statistics are against many of the graduating students this year, and in future years because of the state of the economy. Therefore, with thousands of students who are graduating and face years of paying off student loans that increase every year, you pay on them. You could pay on these loans for years to come without little relief. There literally is no way out of student loans unless you automatically become rich overnight and can pay the entire bill off. The chances and odds are against you no matter how you look at the situation.
Talking to your college counselor’s does not do any good. She called one time to seek advice about where she should look for a job, who she could contact for resume help instead of paying more money to have someone else make your resume. The thing that you have to go through in this world is amazing. Not only paying for college on a small salary but also not being able to find a decent job in this small town that does not cost an arm and a leg to get a license. This world does not have many mentors that she would consider a mentor because many people do not want others to succeed or show them up with knowledge or skills. She knows that other people are better than she is however; she is better at some things than other people are.
With more than what feels like thirty or forty years of debt piled up against her in this dwindling economy with no new jobs being put in the economy and current jobs you have to wait for someone to quit or keel over. Sometimes it makes you wonder how people still can afford to eat out, drive their car, and other things that they like to do. It is quite amazing to see how many people still do not think that anything is going to happen. They have a surprise coming to them if they think that things are not going to get worse because they are. She knows that in the end it all works out so she keeps on working to make ends meet on the little income she brings in. Writing down everything that she does throughout the day, week, months, and years from here on out allowing her to see the accomplishments that she has made over the years. The real world and reality is that now with no jobs in the economy she has to work twice as hard to make her future dreams of having her own business become a reality.
At the end of the day, she takes her shoes off and sits back to watch the children as they watch television, and talks about the day that she had. Whom she met, and whom she talked to today. Furthermore, it seems quite interesting to listen to customers, and what actions they take to manage to make it through the rough spots throughout their life. The worries of the day are over and another dollar or two earned for the day. She will wake up in the morning and do it all over again for the rest of her life or until something finally goes her way. She has a talent for writing, and enjoys spending the quiet time talking about the things that she has accomplished and whom she has talked to during the day.

Sharing your Customer Losers and Winner’s


Customer Service

Crash

Throughout the world, so many people do not think of any company, which provids excellent customer service skills. Now as for the worst customer service where should one start? Throughout the many warranty’s that she has purchased on equipment, or other technology tools she has yet to find the best customer service around this small town. The first computer she bought was through Dell, a well known computer company that states they have the best computers around for low prices. Well right before the warranty expired the computer started acting up and so she called tech support, and spent a long time on the phone with someone she could not understand, and then you have to perform a variety of tasks to accomplish their goals. The customer Service representative crashes her computer and hangs up on her because they knew they had done something wrong. So she called them back and asked to speak to a manager. They finally got the computer fixed and working the way that is should. She was furious and she will never purchase their computer’s since. She will never buy another one and will tell everyone about their laxk of customer support. Another time she had bought a printer from WalMart and purchased the warranty, which apparently was only good for ninety days after the purchase. After the warranty expires you have to deal with the company who made the product. Well that was a mistake calling. The printer that she had bought would not print from the first day. She spent an hour or two arguing with the customer service representative about what was wrong with the printer. Any time that you call these people you have to waste your time putting the equipment back on the computer, and plugging everything back in so that these representatives can get onto your computer. Who knows what type of information they are getting off of your computer when they suddenly crash your computer. She has yet to buy another warranty because it is a waste of time and money.

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Cost Recovery


The first basic cost recovery strategy is the cost of goods sold which would require the company to take something that is already in stock, and turn around and sell it at a lower price to recover the funds that the company has spent on the product. Secondly, the company has depreciation, which allows the company to sell the assets now possibly at a discounted rate because the cost may be different in the future because of the depreciation in value. Furthermore, amortization is used for the intangible assets that the company has which accumulates value over time. If a company decided to buy a contract for five years for another retailer in the area. The contract could be sold or completed within that period with the company recovering all the funds. The last cost recovery strategy is the depletion this method is part of the passive income from the company’s outside sources. These outside sources could include rent for other space in a different building or the company paying for natural resources surrounding the property. A company would implement a cost recovery strategy to assure that all measures have been taken. If a company were to not spend enough time, preparing for what may happen in the future could cause the business to close. This would result in the company closing and not being able to pay the bills that it has incurred during business. In order for a business to survive, they must earn the consumer’s trust and treat the consumer as if they are the most important thing surrounding their company.